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Week 16 Details, Angles and Edges

 The lookahead on this game was the Steelers -2.5. But then the Steelers lost outright as a large 14+ point favorite on primetime TV.

When this line reopened on Tuesday morning, the Colts were a soft 3-point favorite.

That line was quickly bought back as being wrong by preceptive bettors who believed this was too large an over-adjustment.

For that reason, this line is sitting with the Colts favored by only 1.5 points.

Pittsburgh has become far too predictable offensively. It’s like watching a terrible card trick, where you’re waiting for the prestige at the end - something incredible - but there’s nothing.

What you see is what you get.

The Steelers Offense is the anti-Kyle Shanahan offense.

Defenders are jumping routes daring the Steelers to hold the ball and throw deep, knowing if they do, it’s bound to be inaccurate far more often than it is completed for a big gain. And without the ability to run the football nor the desire to use play action, linebackers can play a major role in the short passing attack against the Steelers Defense.

The Colts Defense has looked worse of late, but has also played nothing but top-15 offenses for 6 straight games.

At one point this season, the Steelers was in that category, but they are now borderline bottom-10 in season-long efficiency, and their trending data is obviously worse.

One thing to watch for in this game is the Steelers Defense when they blitz. They blitz at the second highest rate of any team in the NFL and Philip Rivers has dominated against the blitz and pressure, responding extremely well in those situations.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

I have no idea why Sean Payton utilized the game plan he did last week against the Chiefs. It was perplexing to say the least. The Saints were terrible – Drew Brees was struggling – and I don’t know how they didn’t get Alvin Kamara more involved.

Brees completed just 5 of 15 passes thrown 5+ air yards downfield, -0.01 EPA, 33% success rate

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