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Feinberg Forecast: Final Oscar Nominations Predictions

 Everett

The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist weighs in on all 23 categories ahead of Monday morning's announcement.

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences.

*BEST PICTURE*

Projected Nominees

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Minari (A24)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

Promising Young Woman (Focus)

Sound of Metal (Amazon)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

Mank (Netflix)

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

The Father (Sony Classics)

Alternate

News of the World (Universal)

Potential Surprise

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Time (Amazon)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Projected Nominees

ChloƩ Zhao (Nomadland)

David Fincher (Mank)

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

Alternate

Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast

Potential Surprise

Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Florian Zeller (The Father)

*BEST ACTOR*

Projected Nominees

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast

Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast

Anthony Hopkins (The Father) — podcast

Gary Oldman (Mank) — podcast

Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast

Alternate

Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Potential Surprise

Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Projected Nominees

Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast

Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) — podcast

Alternate

Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast

Potential Surprise

Yeri Han (Minari)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Projected Nominees

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast

Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

David Strathairn (Nomadland)

Alternate

Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Potential Surprise

Alan S. Kim (Minari)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Projected Nominees

Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast

Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast

Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) — podcast

Alternate

Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast

Potential Surprise

Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Projected Nominees

Nomadland (ChloƩ Zhao)

One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)

The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)

News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) — podcast [Greengrass]

Alternate

The Mauritanian (Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani & M.B. Traven)

Potential Surprise

First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Projected Nominees

Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast

Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)

Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)

Mank (Jack Fincher)

Alternate

Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)

Potential Surprise

The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Projected Nominees

Crip Camp (Netflix)

Time (Amazon)

Collective (Magnolia/Participant)

The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)

Alternate

Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)

Potential Surprise

The Mole Agent (Gravitas)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Dissident (Briarcliff)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Projected Nominees

Another Round (Denmark)

Collective (Romania)

Two of Us (France)

A Sun (Taiwan)

Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Alternate

I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

Potential Surprise

Hope (Norway)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Life Ahead (Italy)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Projected Nominees

Soul (Pixar)

Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)

Over the Moon (Netflix)

Onward (Pixar)

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)

Alternate

The Croods: A New Age (DreamWorks)

Potential Surprise

Earwig and the Witch (GKIDS)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Willoughbys (Netflix)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Projected Nominees

Mank

Nomadland

News of the World

Judas and the Black Messiah

Minari

Alternate

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Potential Surprise

First Cow

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Truffle Hunters

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Projected Nominees

Mank

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Emma

News of the World

Ammonite

Alternate

Mulan

Potential Surprise

The Glorias

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Promising Young Woman

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Projected Nominees

Sound of Metal

Nomadland

Mank

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Father

Alternate

News of the World

Potential Surprise

Judas and the Black Messiah

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Time

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Projected Nominees

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Hillbilly Elegy

Emma

Pinocchio

Alternate

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Potential Surprise

The Glorias

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Birds of Prey

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Projected Nominees

Soul

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Minari

News of the World

Alternate

Tenet

Potential Surprise

Da 5 Bloods

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Invisible Man

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Projected Nominees

"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)

"Io Si (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)

"Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)

"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

"Never Break" (Giving Voice)

Alternate

"Turntables" (All In: The Fight for Democracy)

Potential Surprise

"Rain Song" (Minari)

Shoulda Been a Contenda

"Only the Young" (Miss Americana)

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Projected Nominees

Mank

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

News of the World

The Father

Tenet

Alternate

Judas and the Black Messiah

Potential Surprise

Ammonite

Shoulda Been a Contenda

I'm Thinking of Ending Things

*BEST SOUND*

Projected Nominees

Sound of Metal

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Nomadland

News of the World

Soul

Alternate

Mank

Potential Surprise

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Prom

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Projected Nominees

Tenet

Mank

The Midnight Sky

The One and Only Ivan

Mulan

Alternate

Birds of Prey

Potential Surprise

Welcome to Chechnya

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Invisible Man

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Projected Nominees

If Anything Happens I Love You

To Gerard

Yes-People

Out

Kapaemahu

Alternate

The Snail and the Whale

Potential Surprise

Opera

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Genius Loci

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Projected Nominees

A Concerto Is a Conversation

A Love Song for Latasha

Colette

Hysterical Girl

Do Not Split

Alternate

What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Potential Surprise

Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa

Shoulda Been a Contenda

Hunger Ward

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Projected Nominees

Two Distant Strangers

The Human Voice

Feeling Through

The Van

The Present

Alternate

The Letter Room

Potential Surprise

White Eye

Shoulda Been a Contenda

The Kicksled Choir

 

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