Everett
The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist weighs in on all 23 categories ahead of Monday morning's announcement.
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences.
*BEST PICTURE*
Projected Nominees
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Minari (A24)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Mank (Netflix)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Alternate
News of the World (Universal)
Potential Surprise
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Time (Amazon)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Projected Nominees
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Alternate
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Florian Zeller (The Father)
*BEST ACTOR*
Projected Nominees
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) — podcast
Gary Oldman (Mank) — podcast
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast
Alternate
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Projected Nominees
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) — podcast
Alternate
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Yeri Han (Minari)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Projected Nominees
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Alternate
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Alan S. Kim (Minari)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Projected Nominees
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) — podcast
Alternate
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Projected Nominees
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) — podcast [Greengrass]
Alternate
The Mauritanian (Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani & M.B. Traven)
Potential Surprise
First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Projected Nominees
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Alternate
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Potential Surprise
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Nominees
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Alternate
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
Potential Surprise
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Dissident (Briarcliff)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Projected Nominees
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
Two of Us (France)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Alternate
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Potential Surprise
Hope (Norway)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Life Ahead (Italy)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Projected Nominees
Soul (Pixar)
Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Onward (Pixar)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Alternate
The Croods: A New Age (DreamWorks)
Potential Surprise
Earwig and the Witch (GKIDS)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Willoughbys (Netflix)
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Projected Nominees
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Alternate
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Potential Surprise
First Cow
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Truffle Hunters
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Projected Nominees
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma
News of the World
Ammonite
Alternate
Mulan
Potential Surprise
The Glorias
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Promising Young Woman
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Projected Nominees
Sound of Metal
Nomadland
Mank
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Alternate
News of the World
Potential Surprise
Judas and the Black Messiah
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Time
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Projected Nominees
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Hillbilly Elegy
Emma
Pinocchio
Alternate
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Potential Surprise
The Glorias
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Birds of Prey
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Projected Nominees
Soul
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Alternate
Tenet
Potential Surprise
Da 5 Bloods
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Invisible Man
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Projected Nominees
"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)
"Io Si (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
"Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Never Break" (Giving Voice)
Alternate
"Turntables" (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
Potential Surprise
"Rain Song" (Minari)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
"Only the Young" (Miss Americana)
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Projected Nominees
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
The Father
Tenet
Alternate
Judas and the Black Messiah
Potential Surprise
Ammonite
Shoulda Been a Contenda
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
*BEST SOUND*
Projected Nominees
Sound of Metal
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
News of the World
Soul
Alternate
Mank
Potential Surprise
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Prom
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Projected Nominees
Tenet
Mank
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Mulan
Alternate
Birds of Prey
Potential Surprise
Welcome to Chechnya
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Invisible Man
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Projected Nominees
If Anything Happens I Love You
To Gerard
Yes-People
Out
Kapaemahu
Alternate
The Snail and the Whale
Potential Surprise
Opera
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Genius Loci
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Projected Nominees
A Concerto Is a Conversation
A Love Song for Latasha
Colette
Hysterical Girl
Do Not Split
Alternate
What Would Sophia Loren Do?
Potential Surprise
Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Hunger Ward
*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*
Projected Nominees
Two Distant Strangers
The Human Voice
Feeling Through
The Van
The Present
Alternate
The Letter Room
Potential Surprise
White Eye
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Kicksled Choir
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